The China Problem

A history teacher (whose name I can't remember) told me once that history is the story of power shifting constantly westward; from Greece to Rome to Germany to France to Spain to England to America. There are often wars to dispute this flow of power, but they only serve to delay the inevitable.

It is hard for me to imagine that only four hundred years ago, Great Britain practically ruled the world. Now, in our current culture, she is just a friendly island floating above the waters of Europe.

All empires die- when will ours?

As empires go, we are untraditional. We underwent a spate of territory grabbing early on, and then added a few knickknacks here and there to keep up appearances. Largely our empire is based on our reputation. We are America, and the rest of the world knows it. We spent the Soviet Union into submission and there is no one left to challenge our dominance.

Enter China, stage right.

It is only a matter of time before China outshines us on the global stage. At present (to carry the metaphor further) she is training her voice and content to be the eager understudy- but she is learning fast. She knows, in her ancient wisdom, that it is easier to watch us get old and fat than attack. If it takes us to long to do so, however, a quick push down the stairs might be the answer.

Eastern culture is so vastly different from Western culture that I won't even begin to pretend to be an expert on the former. I do think this much is true, however- in the East, time is seen VERY differently. They think in terms of centuries rather than days. Whereas we look to next week, they are planning out the next five decades.

Partly this stems from cultural roots- yet it also has a practical purpose. The Chinese remember well the defeat of its neighbor Japan, who foolishly attempted to take America's power before the time was right. China will make no such mistake. If they attack, it will have the surprise elements of Pearl Harbor but none of the restraint. They will not be seeking to defend.

China is in the process of gobbling up American companies and annually increasing its defense budget. In this way, it will successfully mitigate the two advantages that America has generally maintained in war- superior equipment and production. Hitler learned the hard way that in the time it took him to shoot down an American fighter, our factories had produced ten others to take its place. Just like Russia, we spent and produced them into the ground.

There will be heightened tension between the two countries as China attempts to climb higher and we resist her efforts. Right now China is happy in its role, quietly growing and building strength. But the moment China tires of playing the "little kid, big kid" game is a day I hope I never have to see.

Looking at history, I see two possible outcomes- total nuclear war or a long, protracted struggle in which the casualties of WWII appear trivial by comparison. This might take place a hundred years from now or a thousand. But it will happen.

And China will win. For power always shifts west.